Although the homicide rate declined nationwide between 2012 and 2015, the number of homicides remained above two thousand a year in Guerrero and Chihuahua. In the case of Baja California Sur and Colima, which were not in the top ten of homicides, they already have homicide rates that double the national average.
In the last year of Calderón’s administration, there were almost 26,000 homicides nationwide. Chihuahua had the first place with 77 murders per 100 thousand inhabitants quadrupling the national average.
In the administration of Peña Nieto, the average number of murders a year is 21,600 and in the first months of 2016, homicide rates rose 20 percent compared to the same period in 2015, that is, there were 2,000 more murders .
Specialists say that if this trend continues, 2018 could end up with 8,000 more murders than were counted in the Calderón presidential term.
There is a divergence in the numbers of murders in this sexenio, but in spite of differing with respect to the institution that collects the data, what is clear is that in all the reports the homicide is on the rise. The Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP) reports 72,774 judicial investigations for violent deaths in the period 2012-15. For its part, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) counts 16 thousand 816 more registrations.
Just this weekend, violence erupted in Tijuana, Baja California, in what appears to be a war between the New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG), allied with the Arellano Felix Cartel against the Sinaloa Cartel. In the region so far in 2016, 726 homicides have been committed, this figure indicates that 2.6 people are killed in this city, according to data from the Public Security Secretariat of Baja California.
Security specialist Alejandro Hope, who studies these figures seriously, said that “we had not seen anything like it since the great wave of violence from 2008 to 2011. At the current rate, the country will return to the violence peak of 2011 in less than a year “.